Toronto House Prices Still Holding Up

House prices in the City of Toronto remained steady in April, albeit lower than last year. The ongoing decline in Condo prices sped up a bit this month.

Houses

April house prices were about the same as in February and March, however, they were about 6% lower than last April. It would seem that the ongoing tariff uncertainty has taken the steam out of the usual spring surge in prices. Now that discussions between Carney and Trump have started, perhaps the tariff mess will begin to clarify and buyers will increasingly come back to the table. If so, prices could stay more or less steady through the summer and we could then see a resurgence in the market this fall.

The inventory of houses for sale has remained in ‘balanced market’ territory so far this year, and has actually decreased over the last two months. This is yet another testament to the resilience of the Toronto house market in the face of uncertainty.

Sales of houses in Toronto have also been steady, and closely matched last April this month, though slightly lower for the year to date overall.

Condos

The condo market is continuing the overall downtrend that began in 2020:

• First we had the Covid lockdowns in 2020, which encouraged condo owners to seek more living space by moving out of the city;
• Then interest rates rose steeply in 2022, which encouraged condo investors to sell;
• Then we had increasing landlord/tenant issues due to the long delays in landlord/tenant board hearings;
• And now we have the tariff uncertainties.

So the condo market has been in decline for the last 5 years, and the trend will likely continue even if we get a rapid resolution to the tariff issues.

Condo prices in April were lower than in March and about 7% lower than last April. This is similar to what we are seeing with houses, except weaker overall.

The inventory of condos for sale remains very high, deep in buyers’ market territory, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Sales of condos are running well below last year and appear to be leveling off.

Bottom Line

House prices and sales are remaining resilient in the face of tariff uncertainties. There is a good chance that, once the tariff situation clarifies, hopefully within the next few months, we could return to the sort of strong market that we saw early this year ‘Before Trump’.

Condos are another story. Clarification of the tariff issues will certainly help, but it seems likely that condo prices and sales will continue to drift lower until all of the underlying issues are resolved.