Houses

The market for houses in the City of Toronto has improved steadily since the beginning of the year: prices have risen in each of the past three months. Year-to-date, prices are still about 4% below last year, however, prices in April have caught up with last April. And, if the usual spring market trend continues, house prices will surpass 2025 next month. Given the generally gloomy geopolitical and economic outlook, this is very encouraging. Perhaps the 2022 price bubble has finally unwound completely, and we can look forward to steady to rising prices over the next year or so.

The inventory of houses for sale in Toronto tells a similar story. Over the past three months, inventory has fallen from 5 months’ supply to just under 3 months, below last year and edging toward sellers’ market territory. In the more desirable areas of the city, we are seeing bidding wars aplenty. Buyers are clearly hungry to purchase properties that tick all the boxes.

Condo Apartments

The condo market continues to be soft in the City of Toronto, mainly due to oversupply. Condo prices rose in April, but remain well below last year.

Even in the condo market, however, there are some positive signs. The inventory of condos for sale has fallen from just under 8 months’ supply to just over 5 months’ supply since the beginning of the year. Still a buyers’ market, but edging toward balanced market territory.

Sales of condo apartments have also risen steeply since the beginning of the year, and April sales were above last April. Coupled with the declining inventory, these data suggest that the condo market may finally have bottomed out.

Bottom Line

The real estate market in the City of Toronto is recovering in 2026. While prices remain below last year, there are clear signs that the Covid distortions have been completely (or almost completely) unwound. Hopefully we can look forward to stable or gently rising prices going forward.

Houses

February house prices increased by 4% vs. January, but were 7% lower than last year. Combining January and February, 2026 prices are 5% lower than last year. Interestingly enough, that’s exactly the same year-over-year decrease that we saw in 2025 as compared with 2024. So we are now in the fourth year of annual price declines.

The inventory of houses for sale in Toronto fell back into the 3-4 months range that we saw throughout 2025. So we are once again in a balanced market, favouring neither buyers nor sellers. Well priced homes in popular areas are selling quickly, many with multiple offers, while homes that are priced beyond what buyers feel they are worth often remain longer on the market. This is typical of a healthy, balanced market, but very different from the hot sellers’ markets we’ve seen for many years

For perspective, it’s instructive to look at Toronto house prices over the past several years since before Covid. During 2016-2017 there was a ‘mini-bubble’ that broke in early 2017 and resulted in steeply falling prices during the spring and summer of that year. Prices bottomed out in 2018 and remained steady through 2019. Then Covid hit. The combination of ultra low interest rates and ‘free money’ to offset the lockdowns led to a 19% year-over-year rise in prices in 2021, followed by a further 11% increase by 2022. This 30% bubble broke in the spring of 2022 because of rapidly increasing interest rates. Prices have fallen quite a bit since 2022, but are still 18% higher than when this all started in 2018. And, since bubbles often retrace to where they started, prices could potentially fall up to another 18% before the bubble completely unwinds.

Condo Apartments

Prices for condos also rose in February, to 5% above January. Prices remain well below last year, however. Toronto condo market woes are well known and well documented, and there is, as yet, no price bottom in sight.

The inventory of condos for sale fell in February, but remains deep in buyers’ market territory, above 6 months’ supply. We need to see lower inventory before we can expect the condo market to stabilize.

Bottom Line

Prices for both houses and condos rose in February, and should continue increasing modestly over the next 2-3 months. However, both house and condo prices remain in a longer term year-over-year decline that could continue for some time.

Houses

The Toronto market for houses experienced a notable slowdown over the final three months of 2025, so it’s not surprising that January activity was somewhat muted. The encouraging news is that January prices were only slightly lower than last year and notably higher than in December, suggesting positive momentum heading into February.

The inventory of houses for sale rose to 5 months’ supply in January. This is the highest inventory level that we have seen since before Covid, and indicates that the market has shifted into buyer-friendly territory. This reflects the low level of sales in January, which were at their weakest in more than 6 years, as many buyers remain on the sidelines amid ongoing uncertainty.

Recent headlines have focused on weakness in GTA house prices in January, but it’s important to distinguish between the broader GTA and the City of Toronto. While GTA house prices were down 7% year over year in January, prices within the City of Toronto declined by only 2%. This highlights that, although the Toronto market is softer than last year, it remains considerably stronger than the GTA overall.

Much of this difference can be traced back to pandemic-driven migration patterns. During COVID, the rise of work-from-home encouraged many Toronto residents—particularly condo owners—to relocate to 905 communities, driving a surge in suburban house prices. As work-from-home policies are increasingly rolled back, this trend is reversing. The relative appeal of the 905 has diminished, and demand for city living is strengthening. As a result, we are seeing a reversion to the mean, with 905 prices declining more sharply compared to those in the City of Toronto.

Condo Apartments

The Toronto condo market remains weak in January. Prices are 9% below last January and 5% below December. Condo prices are still falling.

The inventory of condos for sale increased by 17% as compared with last January, to almost 8 months’ supply. This is very deep in buyers’ market territory, and reflects very low sales. Interestingly, the GTA condo market as a whole is quite similar to Toronto: prices fell by 10% versus last year, and inventory was also close to 8 months’ supply.

Bottom Line

The Toronto market is off to a slow start for both houses and condos. For houses, the outlook for February is positive, as January prices were only slightly lower than last year despite higher inventory levels. The outlook for condos is less positive, as prices fell steeply while inventory increased substantially.

The Half Decade In Review

As we close out a challenging 2025, we also mark five years since the onset of COVID in 2020. The first two years of the pandemic saw the formation of a price bubble, which burst in 2022 when interest rates rose sharply to combat inflation. Since then, prices have steadily declined and are now approaching 2020 levels. Conventional wisdom suggests that after a bubble bursts, prices often revert to their starting point before resuming their longer-term trend. If that pattern holds, we could see prices begin to rise again in 2026, albeit modestly.

Houses

City of Toronto house prices continued the downward trend that began in October, ending 2025 at their lowest point—11% below September levels and 14% below the spring peak. Despite this decline, bidding wars have persisted over the past three months for homes that “check all the boxes,” highlighting strong underlying demand from qualified buyers ready to act when they find the right house. Many buyers, however, remain on the sidelines awaiting clearer signs of a market turnaround. If the market has indeed reached the bottom of the post-bubble adjustment, this could set the stage for a relatively strong spring market in 2026.

Condo Apartments

Condo prices in the City of Toronto have followed a different pattern than houses over the past three months. While both rose in September, condo prices continued to climb in October and November before dropping sharply in December. As a result, condos—like houses—ended 2025 at their lowest point of the year. The condo market has been hit hard since COVID. Lockdowns triggered a move to surrounding communities, higher interest rates led many investors to sell rental units, and a wave of new condo completions added further supply. Together, these forces pushed inventory higher and prices lower. With these pressures now easing, the market appears well positioned for a gradual recovery.

Bottom Line

The real estate market has been unusually volatile over the past five years, with intra-year price swings of at least 10%, and nearly 20% in 2020. While prices may find a bottom and begin to rise in 2026, heightened volatility is likely to continue, driven by economic and geopolitical factors and ongoing uncertainty among buyers and sellers. It may be another roller-coaster year ahead.

Houses

After a strong but brief rally in September, house prices in the City of Toronto have fallen for the second month in a row and are now back to where they were in August. Hopefully prices will bounce back in the spring and, if buyers perceive that prices have bottomed out, this bounce could be quite strong. After all, there are lots of buyers ready and able to pull the trigger if they sense that the market is turning around. On the other hand, if recession fears continue to increase, we could have a very muted spring market.

Condo Apartments

Surprisingly enough, condo prices in the City of Toronto have rallied upward for the past three months in a row and are now close to where they were a year ago. This suggests that condo prices may actually have bottomed out. While it’s far too soon to expect anything dramatic (we continue to be deep in buyers’ market territory with very high inventory), we can certainly hope for a modestly positive spring market with prices a bit higher than this year. If the condo market has indeed hit bottom, this could be a positive sign for the house market as well, increasing the odds for a decent spring market.

Bottom Line

Toronto prices for both houses (-8%) and condos (-10%) have declined significantly since the ‘bubble peak’ in 2022. Most industry experts are forecasting that this decline will continue in 2026, though of course predicting the market has become somewhat of a mug’s game since Covid. Even if this is forecast is correct, a seasonal pattern including higher prices in the spring and fall against a backdrop of overall lower prices is certainly possible. We’ll see if the hoped-for ‘spring surge’ materializes.

Houses

After a strong rebound in September, Toronto house prices have resumed their downward trend in October. September prices were 9% higher than Aug, but about half of that gain was given back in October. November and December are usually weaker than September and October, so we could see prices dip below the August low by year-end.

On a more positive note, the inventory of houses for sale was 3.8 months, remaining in the ‘balanced market’ range where it has been all year.

Condo Apartments

Condo prices actually improved in October. While still below last year, this is a welcome trend in a market that has been weak for some time. Perhaps this is even a sign that the condo market has hit bottom and can start to recover.

Condo inventory remains high at 6.5 months, but has remained steady in the 6-7 months range throughout the year, another hint that the condo market may finally be stabilizing.

Bottom Line

Ever since Covid, the real estate market has been more volatile and more unpredictable than at any time in the past quarter century. Now we seen to be shifting toward even greater uncertainty. Far from calming down, the simmering trade war with the US is heating further, with President Trump cutting off negotiations and adding more tariffs. And recession fears seem to be increasing among both consumers and businesss. In this environment, it’s impossible to predict what next year’s market will be like. We do know, however, that both buyers and sellers have a tendency to ‘wait and see’ in the face of high uncertainty. And this is not a positive sign for the near term future of the real estate market.

Houses

Toronto house prices fell sharply from May through August, but rebounded sharply in September, as per the normal seasonal trend. The average price for houses is now 2.5% below last September, closer than it’s been since the Tariff Troubles began in the spring. If past is prologue, prices should continue to rise in October and then fade as we get closer to the holiday season. Another interest rate cut in October by the Bank of Canada might even extend the fall market further.

Both sales and listings were higher in September than in the summer, and the inventory of homes for sale fell slightly, further evidence of the relative strength of the fall market. Inventory is now only slightly higher than last September after rising steadily for the past four months.

Condo Apartments

Condo prices also rebounded in September, though more modestly than  houses.  Condo prices have been lower this year than last year every month since January and are down 5% year-to-date.

Similar to houses, condo inventory declined slightly in September. Nevertheless, condos remain deep in buyers’ market territory, where they have been all year. The main root causes of this situation — steep interest rate hikes in 2022 combined with a market heavily reliant on rentals — are well known, and it’s likely that condos will remain in a buyers’ market for some time to come.

As we near the end of a typically slow summer, all eyes are turning toward what we hope will be a strong fall market. Bookended by Canada Day at the beginning and Labour Day at the end, the summer market is invariably a quiet time, for several reasons:

• Warm summer days are with us for only a short time, so many of us take vacations from both work and real estate during that time.
• Our kids are out of school, cementing summer as vacation time for families.
• “Everyone knows” that summer isn’t a great time to buy or sell – it’s a self-reinforcing pattern.
• Real estate agents tend to support the ‘summer is slow’ meme; they like to take vacations, too.

The fall market can often be as strong as the spring, although shorter. It starts a week or so after Labour Day and ends when the weather turns cold and thoughts turn to Christmas parties, generally around mid-November.

Houses

Toronto house prices have fallen steadily for the past three months in a row, and now stand about 10% below both this spring and last August. Tariff/trade uncertainty, together with recession fears, have certainly taken a toll this year. There is reason to hope that the normal seasonal trend, together with at least 50/50 odds that the Bank of Canada will lower the bank rate at their September 17 meeting, will lift prices up over the next couple of months.

Prices have been flat or falling for the past 6 months, so there has been little urgency for buyers to purchase ‘now’. Even so, we’ve seen evidence of pent up demand, as energetic bidding wars persist for properties that ‘check all the boxes’. When buyers see prices start to increase, they may return to the market in force, creating a virtuous upward spiral.

Condo Apartments

The condo market has also experienced a slow summer. Plus, condos remain deeply mired in buyers’ market territory, with almost  months’ inventory of unsold units. Condo prices might rebound to some extent in the fall, but with so many units to choose from, it’s not likely that condo buyers will push prices significantly higher.

Bottom Line

After a slow summer market in Toronto, there is guarded optimism that we could see a seasonally driven rebound over the next couple of months, more so for houses than for condos. We will get an idea as to how strong this rebound might be over the next 2-3 weeks.

Both houses and condos are following the usual “summer slowdown” pattern: lower prices and lower sales versus the previous month.

Houses

July house prices fell by 3% versus last month and by 4% versus last July. Both of these were proportionately smaller than the corresponding changes in June. Overall, house prices over the last four months (since the beginning of “Trump Chaos”) are about 6% below last year. If past is prologue, prices should begin to recover next month, with the fall peak likely coming in September/October.

The inventory of houses for sale increased in July, as it did last year, but remained in the 3-4 months’ supply range where it has been all year. The market for houses in the City of Toronto remains balanced, favouring neither buyers or sellers. This is contrary to the general impression that the market is weak and oversupplied, only because we have been accustomed to strong sellers’ markets for so much of the last quarter century,

Condo Apartments

Condo prices fell by 6% in July, more than offsetting the 3% increase last month. Overall, prices over the past 4 months, since the tariff disruptions began, are about 7% lower than the same 4 months last year. This is only slightly larger than the corresponding drop in house prices. As for houses, there will probably be a recovery in condo prices in the fall. The best months, if we follow the usual fall market script, will be September and October, the same as for houses.

Condo inventory in the City of Toronto has remained steady at about 7 months’ supply for the past 4 months. Hopefully this is a sign that we are at or near the bottom of a correction from the years-long boom that peaked in 2022.

Houses

It’s been a very unusual first half for the Toronto house market this year. We were off to a blazing start, and all signs pointed toward a very strong spring market. Then came Mr. Trump and his oscillating tariffs. This created much uncertainty, and buyers understandably became suddenly cautious. This caused house prices to go flat for three months, effectively eliminating the usual spring market surge. In June, prices fell, however, this is at least as much due to normal seasonality as to the ongoing Trump Chaos. The 4% drop in prices from  May to June is almost exactly the same as the May-June drop last year. We may well see even lower prices in July and August as the summer market fully kicks in, however, the real question is whether we will see a ‘normal’ seasonal rebound in the fall.

Somewhat surprisingly, sales fell only slightly in June, and were actually higher than last June. Buyers are still active and, while they have become very selective, they are bidding aggressively on homes that ‘tick all the boxes’. Bidding wars on well priced properties in desirable area are still quite common. Apparently there is a lot of pent up demand waiting for the economic uncertainty to subside.

There is a wide spread perception that the inventory of homes for sale is very high. It’s certainly true that inventory is higher this year, especially as compared with last Spring. And yet, inventory has held steady at around 3 1/2 months’ supply for the past six months. It’s no longer a sellers’ market, but neither is it a buyers’ market. This would be most accurately described as a balanced market, which is arguably the most healthy type.

Condo Apartments

The Toronto condo market, as everyone is no doubt aware, has been struggling for some time. This is mostly due to the sharp increase in mortgage rates in early 2022. Owners of rental condos felt the pressure from higher rates most acutely. All of a sudden, their rental condo was losing money and, even worse, many couldn’t afford the higher payments on both the rental property and their personal home. Not too surprisingly, a lot of rental condos hit the market and, because roughly half of condo apartments are rentals, this caused a big jump in condos for sale. For most of the past year, the inventory of condos for sale has been more than 6 months supply, deep in buyers’ market territory.

In spite of the poor supply/demand situation, condo prices actually increased in June, to their highest level since last July. We’ll have to wait to see whether this is a one-off anomaly or maybe the start of a new trend.

Prices for houses and condos in the City of Toronto have been unchanged since February. Sales have actually increased steadily since January. Both sales and prices have been lower than last year, however. The normal spring market bounce has been noticeably absent in 2025. Even so, the City of Toronto has fared better than the surrounding parts of the GTA since the Trump tariff storm began.

Selling Price Trends

House prices started strong this year, matching last year through March. Then the Trump Chaos struck, and prices have remained flat ever since. We haven’t had a normal spring market, but prices haven’t collapsed either. Overall, house prices have been resilient in the face of the economic uncertainty.

Condo prices have also remained flat since February. The Toronto condo market has been struggling over the past three years for a number of reasons unrelated to President Trump. Nonetheless, condo prices have also shown resilience in the face of the new uncertainties.

Sales Trends

Sales of houses in Toronto have increased steadily since the beginning of this year. While sales have lagged a bit behind last year overall, they matched 2024 in April and May. This is more evidence that the market for houses in the City of Toronto is holding up remarkably well considering the economic backdrop.

Sales of condo apartments in the City of Toronto have also increased steadily since January, though they are well below last year. Similar to houses, the Toronto condo market is weathering the storm relatively well, especially considering that condos were already weak BT (Before Trump).

Inventory Trends

The inventory of houses for sale is higher than last year, but is holding steady in ‘balanced market’ territory. This may seem weak, but this is only because we have seen mostly sellers’ markets for the past 20 years or so. A balanced market is actually quite healthy, we just need to get used to it again.

Condo inventory is high, well into buyers’ market territory. This is not a new development. For most of the past two years, condos have been in a buyers’ market, for reasons unrelated to tariffs. Trump Chaos is pushing inventory levels higher and further weakening the condo market. Nevertheless, condos are holding up well in the face of multiple negative forces.

Bottom Line

The economic uncertainty created by the dizzying tariff storm has clearly put a damper on the Toronto real estate market. Under the circumstances, the market has shown considerable resilience. Once the economic uncertainties clarify and stabilize (hopefully soon!), the market might just rebound strongly, maybe as early as this fall.

House prices in the City of Toronto remained steady in April, albeit lower than last year. The ongoing decline in Condo prices sped up a bit this month.

Houses

April house prices were about the same as in February and March, however, they were about 6% lower than last April. It would seem that the ongoing tariff uncertainty has taken the steam out of the usual spring surge in prices. Now that discussions between Carney and Trump have started, perhaps the tariff mess will begin to clarify and buyers will increasingly come back to the table. If so, prices could stay more or less steady through the summer and we could then see a resurgence in the market this fall.

The inventory of houses for sale has remained in ‘balanced market’ territory so far this year, and has actually decreased over the last two months. This is yet another testament to the resilience of the Toronto house market in the face of uncertainty.

Sales of houses in Toronto have also been steady, and closely matched last April this month, though slightly lower for the year to date overall.

Condos

The condo market is continuing the overall downtrend that began in 2020:

• First we had the Covid lockdowns in 2020, which encouraged condo owners to seek more living space by moving out of the city;
• Then interest rates rose steeply in 2022, which encouraged condo investors to sell;
• Then we had increasing landlord/tenant issues due to the long delays in landlord/tenant board hearings;
• And now we have the tariff uncertainties.

So the condo market has been in decline for the last 5 years, and the trend will likely continue even if we get a rapid resolution to the tariff issues.

Condo prices in April were lower than in March and about 7% lower than last April. This is similar to what we are seeing with houses, except weaker overall.

The inventory of condos for sale remains very high, deep in buyers’ market territory, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Sales of condos are running well below last year and appear to be leveling off.

Bottom Line

House prices and sales are remaining resilient in the face of tariff uncertainties. There is a good chance that, once the tariff situation clarifies, hopefully within the next few months, we could return to the sort of strong market that we saw early this year ‘Before Trump’.

Condos are another story. Clarification of the tariff issues will certainly help, but it seems likely that condo prices and sales will continue to drift lower until all of the underlying issues are resolved.