October House Prices Fall, Condo Prices Rise

Houses

After a strong rebound in September, Toronto house prices have resumed their downward trend in October. September prices were 9% higher than Aug, but about half of that gain was given back in October. November and December are usually weaker than September and October, so we could see prices dip below the August low by year-end.

On a more positive note, the inventory of houses for sale was 3.8 months, remaining in the ‘balanced market’ range where it has been all year.

Condo Apartments

Condo prices actually improved in October. While still below last year, this is a welcome trend in a market that has been weak for some time. Perhaps this is even a sign that the condo market has hit bottom and can start to recover.

Condo inventory remains high at 6.5 months, but has remained steady in the 6-7 months range throughout the year, another hint that the condo market may finally be stabilizing.

Bottom Line

Ever since Covid, the real estate market has been more volatile and more unpredictable than at any time in the past quarter century. Now we seen to be shifting toward even greater uncertainty. Far from calming down, the simmering trade war with the US is heating further, with President Trump cutting off negotiations and adding more tariffs. And recession fears seem to be increasing among both consumers and businesss. In this environment, it’s impossible to predict what next year’s market will be like. We do know, however, that both buyers and sellers have a tendency to ‘wait and see’ in the face of high uncertainty. And this is not a positive sign for the near term future of the real estate market.