Toronto Condo Prices Keep Rising… But House Prices Keep Falling

Houses

After a strong but brief rally in September, house prices in the City of Toronto have fallen for the second month in a row and are now back to where they were in August. Hopefully prices will bounce back in the spring and, if buyers perceive that prices have bottomed out, this bounce could be quite strong. After all, there are lots of buyers ready and able to pull the trigger if they sense that the market is turning around. On the other hand, if recession fears continue to increase, we could have a very muted spring market.

Condo Apartments

Surprisingly enough, condo prices in the City of Toronto have rallied upward for the past three months in a row and are now close to where they were a year ago. This suggests that condo prices may actually have bottomed out. While it’s far too soon to expect anything dramatic (we continue to be deep in buyers’ market territory with very high inventory), we can certainly hope for a modestly positive spring market with prices a bit higher than this year. If the condo market has indeed hit bottom, this could be a positive sign for the house market as well, increasing the odds for a decent spring market.

Bottom Line

Toronto prices for both houses (-8%) and condos (-10%) have declined significantly since the ‘bubble peak’ in 2022. Most industry experts are forecasting that this decline will continue in 2026, though of course predicting the market has become somewhat of a mug’s game since Covid. Even if this is forecast is correct, a seasonal pattern including higher prices in the spring and fall against a backdrop of overall lower prices is certainly possible. We’ll see if the hoped-for ‘spring surge’ materializes.