Toronto Fall Market Off To A Slow Start

Houses

We have seen a slight increase in house prices this month relative to July and August. It’s a smaller improvement than expected, however, based on the three recent interest rate cuts.  The average price is back to where it was this February, and about 2-3% lower than last August. Potentially, this upward trend will continue and even accelerate in October, especially if another rate cut is forthcoming. It seems as if buyers are still cautious about jumping back into the market. As long as prices remain relatively low, they can wait for interest rates to keep falling and therefore improving affordability. That could change once buyers sense that prices are starting to move up more quickly.

The inventory of houses for sale fell slightly in September, consistent with the gradual improvement in prices.

Condo Apartments

The condo market continues to be soft. Prices increased from the August low, but are still about 4% below last September.

Condo inventory continued to rise in September. This suggests that any positive trend in prices and sales this fall might be somewhat muted.

Bottom Line

There are tentative signs that the three recent cuts in the Bank of Canada rate are finally starting to get some traction. It remains to be seen whether the upward trend continues through the rest of the fall.