Toronto July Market Following Seasonal Script

Both houses and condos are following the usual “summer slowdown” pattern: lower prices and lower sales versus the previous month.

Houses

July house prices fell by 3% versus last month and by 4% versus last July. Both of these were proportionately smaller than the corresponding changes in June. Overall, house prices over the last four months (since the beginning of “Trump Chaos”) are about 6% below last year. If past is prologue, prices should begin to recover next month, with the fall peak likely coming in September/October.

The inventory of houses for sale increased in July, as it did last year, but remained in the 3-4 months’ supply range where it has been all year. The market for houses in the City of Toronto remains balanced, favouring neither buyers or sellers. This is contrary to the general impression that the market is weak and oversupplied, only because we have been accustomed to strong sellers’ markets for so much of the last quarter century,

Condo Apartments

Condo prices fell by 6% in July, more than offsetting the 3% increase last month. Overall, prices over the past 4 months, since the tariff disruptions began, are about 7% lower than the same 4 months last year. This is only slightly larger than the corresponding drop in house prices. As for houses, there will probably be a recovery in condo prices in the fall. The best months, if we follow the usual fall market script, will be September and October, the same as for houses.

Condo inventory in the City of Toronto has remained steady at about 7 months’ supply for the past 4 months. Hopefully this is a sign that we are at or near the bottom of a correction from the years-long boom that peaked in 2022.