Quiet Start For Toronto Market In 2025

Just over a month ago we were looking forward to a healthy spring market following a surge in sales last October and November. While that still might happen, the tariff war kicked off on Saturday by President Trump has administered a large dose of uncertainty.

Houses

January house prices were virtually identical to last January. While we had hoped for a stronger start to the year, this is actually quite positive. Despite anticipation of the tariffs over the last month, the market is holding up well so far. Sales of houses were also encouraging, as they were slightly higher than both January 2024 and January 2023.

The inventory of houses for sale was about 3.8 months, higher than last January’s inventory of about 2 months. This may be a result of eager sellers hoping to take early advantage of the strong spring market that had been forecast last fall. The fact that prices are steady in spite of the higher inventory is another hopeful sign.

Condo Apartments

The condo market is coming off a volatile 2024. After a strong start, prices leveled off and then fell steeply last summer. Over the last four months, both prices and sales improved as the series of interest rate cuts late last year seemed finally to be gaining some traction. Similar to houses, this suggested that 2025 would be better for condos than 2024.

The uncertainty caused by the Trump tariffs has impacted the condo market just as it has the house market. Sales of condos were lower than last January, and the inventory of condos for sale was higher. Prices, however, were only slightly lower than January 2024 — not the strong start we expected, but yet more positive than it might have been.

Bottom Line

We have entered a period of high uncertainty due to the Trump tariffs. This is completely uncharted territory, however, the Toronto market has so far shown itself to be quite resilient. Stay tuned.